Tag: Covid19

Covid death rate in the UK down for second week

Great news! Well yes it is, less deaths is always good news.

Sadly it’s also very bad news. It’s very bad news because it proves beyond any possible doubt that UK deaths caused by #Covid19 were dropping before the government imposed it’s “#Tier 4” lock-down policy on millions of British citizens. It proves that regardless of the spread of Covid19 the mortality rate is dropping, it proves that herd immunity and virus mutation was making Covid19 less dangerous.

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It also proves that the current house arrest imposed on millions in SE England, Wales and Scotland is unnecessary. As a reminder under UK law and in particular the Human Rights Act 1998 any interference with certain rights held by a citizen by a government is unlawful if not done in accordance with law, is not necessary and is not proportionate.

Depending on the individual concerned the Government’s Tier 4 directions breach one or more of these rights:

  • Article 8: right to a private and family life
  • Article 5: the right to liberty and security
  • Article 1 of the First Protocol: right to peaceful enjoyment of your property
  • Article 2 of the First Protocol: right to education
  • Article 10: freedom of expression and
  • Article 11: the right to protest and freedom of association

As the government’s imposition of Tier 4 is based on claims that are clearly false and not only false but entirely at odds with the known facts it follows that the government’s interreference with our rights is #unlawful.

Some would say that it is a citizen’s duty to oppose a government acting unlawfully.

Covid Hotspots out of Europe

Covid19+

Covid Hotspots out of Europe

On Saturday the 19th of Dec the Prime Minister of the UK, #Boris Johnson announced a new UK Lock-Down Tier, tier 4. He placed around 16 million British people into this tier. No physical movement is permitted outside of the effected area shops and businesses are closed along other restrictions on an individuals personal freedoms.

The scare tactic used to justify this lock down were claims of a new mutation of the #Covid19 virus that according to the UK government spreads at speeds up to #70% faster than the non mutated strain. The UK government is now mooting proposals to continue this attack on the economy and traditional British civil freedoms until Easter 2021.

The basic premise is that this new #Covid19 mutation spreads faster than others. The scientific evidence on this claim is at best ambiguous and at worse contradicts this claim.

It is true that the UK has seen a rise in known Covid19 cases but of greater import is that these new cases have not lead to an increase in the mortality rate for this time of the year which remains more or less within the rolling 5 year average.

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Frankly the government claims about an impending apocalypse aren’t simply wrong, they are bordering on the dishonest. The government’s claim that the new mutation (of a great many mutations) spreads faster is disproved by the above graph. The mutated strain was first spotted in September of 2020. If it was capable of spreading as claimed by the government then by late October, early November the death rate should have been approaching April’s levels. It isn’t. The conclusion is two fold either Covid19 is not spreading as claimed by the government and the extra cases noted are due to the additional testing that’s taking place or the virus is spreading as claimed but is not producing any significant numbers of additional deaths.

Either way this is not a public health emergency and there is currently no empirical evidence that demands the excessive lock-downs demanded by government.

Should we be frightened of new strains of Covid19? According to the #BMJ, the answer is probably not. Covid19 is similar to other viruses in that it mutates naturally, over time these mutations tend to become less virulent. In very simple terms a virus is like any other living thing, it wants to live. It it kills its host it dies with the host, by becoming less dangerous to health the virus promotes its own long term survival. For an update of what significant mutations have already taken place here’s an interesting little article by the UK consortium tasked with tracking the mutations.

One side effect of the UK government’s hysteria is that by promoting the idea that this new mutation is more contagious and by implication more dangerous and that this was an emergency situation #EU member states have used this as an excuse to stop trade and travel from the UK. This has nothing to do with the mutated virus, the EU is already infected but is all to do with attempting to influence the current #Brexit trade negotiations. It’s noteworthy that Boris and his band of hapless morons failed to anticipate this.

Once again the EU has shown itself to be untrustworthy and manipulative and yet some people still worship at the feet of that particular false idol.

Government madness

Lock-down fever …

  • Lock down 1 … Failed
    • Lock down 2 … Failed
      • Lock down 3 … Failed

We shouldn’t really have to say more but for the avoidance of all doubt Lock-Downs do not stop the transmission of #Covid19 or indeed any similar plague, Lock-Downs prolong the effectiveness of the virus by preventing #herd #immunity to develop. To put it more plainly, every time a person is exposed to the virus and recovers they become immune for a while, when enough people are immune we have herd immunity and the virus is beaten. By Locking-Down any immunity gained is lost because the immune person is no longer exposed to the virus and the necessary cells die off.

Lock Down Kills

Shelter the vulnerable, vaccinate them when vaccine is available and get everyone back to work, nothing else will get the country back on its feet.

Boris preaching new covid laws

Lockdown fever …

From 00:01 Wednesday 16/12/2020 one of the financial centres of the world and hub of the #UK economy will be shut down in a so called “Tier 3” #lock-down response to the Chinese Plague or #Covid19 if you’d like to be #woke about it.

The UK has been locked down twice already.

Various parts of the UK have suffered various additional restrictions since the beginning of the year.

None of these lock-downs have worked, nor will they ever.

The PCB Covid tests relied upon by the UK government to track the progress of Covid19 are known to suffer from significant numbers of false positives (meaning they say claim there’s a lot more plague than there really is) and tha in turn means that the UK government is making decisions based on figures known to be wrong.

  • Almost each and every #epidemiologist without exception state unequivocally that life will only return to normal once “heard immunity” is achieved.
  • Covid19 immunity is short lived.
  • Every lock-down resets this immunity.
  • Every immunity lock-down therefore prolongs the effects of Covid19
  • All this is known to government

For all this, the government’s magnificent efforts to destroy the UK economy and the overly authoritarian, indeed near totalitarian repression of any any all reasoned debate on the subject The Dormouse names Boris and his cabal of nut jobs “#Morons of the Week”.

Experimental vaccines

Health and wellbeing

Are you going to have the #Pfizer #vaccine when offered?

The head Dormouse here is in an “at risk” group in relation to #Covid19. He’s not going to take the vaccine and here’s why.

First and foremost, The Dormouse is not “anti-vaccine”, #Smallpox, #Polio, #Measles, #Mumps #Rubella and many more besides have been successfully eradicated in the wild or at the very least significantly controlled through the proper use of well developed vaccines. In the normal course of events The Dormouse takes the view that specific medical conditions of the person to be vaccinated aside one would have to be a moron to refuse appropriate vaccines. And ladies and gents if you’re still concerned about the #MMR vaccine for your children, you shouldn’t be. It’s been around long enough for anything to go wrong to go wrong and it turns out to be as safe as any other vaccine, if not more so.

The Dormouse has concerns about the Covid19 vaccines currently being offered though. These are those concerns:

  • Result data from any trial data from any company has NOT been published for any Covid19 vaccine.
  • No Covid19 vaccine trial data has of today been peer reviewed.
  • No compatibility trials (ie how does this vaccine interact with other medicines) have been conducted
  • Phase I, II and III trials are said to have been successfully concluded and indeed a vaccine could not be approved for use if they hadn’t, however no long term trials have taken place, nor could they have been done in the time available.
  • Governments, including the UK government have indemnified Pfizer and other drugs companies in the event of legal claims being made against them in respect of their vaccines.

The first two items are fundamental to the scientific method. If data is not validated by an independent, knowledgeable third party (publish and peer review) it is impossible to judge the accuracy of any claims made. This is basic, if there’s no peer review there’s no validation and from a scientific point of view any claims made by the discoverer have to be viewed with more than a pinch of salt.

The trials results rely only on manufacturers claims to the regulator. The reported results could be entirely accurate, there might be manageable minor errors, there might be major errors that place the whole program in doubt, there could even be catastrophic errors that lead to a public health emergency, this follows from the paragraph above. More than that is that to date we only have short term results available (no matter how correct), will the vaccine provide protection in a year’s time, what side effects will only come to light next year or the year after? We have no way of knowing.

Lack of compatibility trials means that these vaccines may be rendered useless or even worse have catastrophic effects on patients if they react with other drugs a person may be using.

Effectively the vaccines are still experimental. Their development and trials are not yet concluded and The Dormouse is not a lab rat. Having said that there are those much closer to death than him. An ethical way forward would be to offer the vaccine (after explaining its experimental nature) to those at the very pinnacle of risk from #Covid. That is, those with nothing to lose and where the risk of Covid far outweighs possible side effects. This additional test data could then be used to better inform the general population.

So for the general population do the potential risks associated with Covid outweigh the potential risks posed by the experimental vaccines? At this stage the best we can say is that the question is not yet answered. To which The Dormouse also asks, why if companies such as Pfizer have confidence in their product did they demand an indemnity before allowing their vaccines to be be deployed? To The Dormouse, that’s a big red flag.

Note
  • No one associated with this website is a doctor or has relevant scientific qualifications
  • This article was written on the 3/12/20, information is changing constantly and some objections listed above may not be relevant when you read this page
  • Generally The Dormouse advocates vaccines and only demurs from that general principle in this special case
  • If your best friend walks over a cliff, you don’t have to follow him. The Dormouse has explained what he will do and what his views are, you must make up your own mind.

Meanwhile even mainstream news services are raising concerns, for instance here’s what Forbes (a well known politically independent US service) has to say.

It appears that these trials are intended to pass the lowest possible barrier of success. As this is being written, the FDA is poised to announce tougher standards for a Covid-19 vaccine in the near future. It is my hope that these new standards for an EUA will at a minimum include requirements for protections from infection itself, protections from severe virus-related disease leading to hospitalization, and a significant improvement in Covid-19 related mortality.

Forbes

Covid and the great Chinese fib

Health and wellbeing

Here’s what we’re being told. That the virus originated in the wild, that a bat was probably the host animal for the virus and that it was transmitted to humans via the scally anteater known as a #pangolin. From there folks in #Wuhan, #China were infected and from them the virus spread to the world.

This might have happened.

Speculating though is both fun and sometimes rewarding and with that in mind we’ll have a little look at some basic figures and see if that explanation makes sense.

Pangolin in the wild
A pangolin, an endangered species gobbled up by some Chinese people as a delicacy.

In Wuhan is a French built #laboratory that was set up to investigate the very family of viruses Covid19 is a part of. Now for numbers, many scientists now believe that the incubation period of #Covid19 is about 5 days, others remain of the view that that it could be up to 11. The actual “R” (reproduction) rate of the virus is unknown. This is because many people, around 20% with Covid are asymptomatic, that is they have no symptoms of the disease. Another group, approximately 80% of those with symptoms have symptoms so mild they don’t require treatment and in some cases remain unaware that they are infected.

When an outbreak takes place local governments act to reduce the spread of the virus. When they do this R quickly drops to around 1.5, once the population begins to actively cooperate with the local government it drops further and begins to die out. In a population that is unaware of the threat and is taking no precautions R is much higher. For the reasons given above there is currently no accurate value for R in a “virgin” population. Scientists suggest values in the range between 4 and 12. For today’s exercise we’ll set an upper limit of 8.

What we’re attempting to estimate is when the Chinese government would have been aware of the initial virus outbreak and when would they have commenced actions to deal with it. For the purpose of this we’ll assume an average of four days between infection and symptoms manifesting themselves sufficiently to require medical attention. So this is how it works we compare R with the incubation period to estimate how many infections take place before significant numbers of patients became hospitalised/require treatment. Once people start to require treatment we can assume that the Chinese government would have been in a position to act.

R = 1.5R = 4R = 8
4 days8102532,769
11 days13916,777,21668,719,476,737
4 (8) days+39262,145134,217,729
11 (15) days+6554,294,967,297To high to be meaningful
Numbers initially infected with Covid19 with incubation values of 4 and 11 days and R values of 1.5, 4 and 8. Last two rows assume four days between infection and symptoms manifesting sufficiently for hospital admission (all figures rounded down)

When we do this we see ridiculously high figures. Assuming that the Chinese authorities acted divisively and effectively after only 11 days from the very first infection and assuming a R of only 4 we see that there are already sixteen million potential infections. Of course one person can be infected multiple times from different sources and not everyone will infect 4 others but all the same the figure has to be reasonably accurate.

And now we’re getting to the nub of the problem. China says that it’s only had 86,000 infections. Even if they’re only counting people with symptoms requiring hospitalisation this number is far to low to be credible, that’s their numbers for over a year.

So we’re left with the inescapable conclusion that China has fibbed. Either they’re not telling the truth about numbers, which is possible, they may be looking to stop a mad panic and promote the great never failing story that is China under communism or they’re fibbing about the source.

If China was fibbing about the source and they knew the source then they may have been able to intervene at a much earlier stage. Numbers of infections could be limited and the effects abroad would be as we see them today. How could China have acted at an earlier stage though if symptoms hadn’t had the chance to become manifest?

Coronavirus the laboratories in Wuhan built by the French
The Wuhan virus factory built by the French

The answer is that if the Virus came not from that bat doing naughty things with a pangolin but instead came from the Wuhan virus factory then we can only assume that the Chinese authorities would well have been aware of the escape; and being aware act at a this very early stage intervene and limit infections to those we’ve seen. Such an explanation even more than any other explains why the Chinese tried to hide details about the virus from the world and the efforts they put into persuading the WHO from taking steps to investigate the matter.

The Dormouse would be the first to agree that there’s a lot of speculation in the above but he’s also surprised that no one else has raised the subject.