Tag: BMJ

Covid Hotspots out of Europe

Covid19+

Covid Hotspots out of Europe

On Saturday the 19th of Dec the Prime Minister of the UK, #Boris Johnson announced a new UK Lock-Down Tier, tier 4. He placed around 16 million British people into this tier. No physical movement is permitted outside of the effected area shops and businesses are closed along other restrictions on an individuals personal freedoms.

The scare tactic used to justify this lock down were claims of a new mutation of the #Covid19 virus that according to the UK government spreads at speeds up to #70% faster than the non mutated strain. The UK government is now mooting proposals to continue this attack on the economy and traditional British civil freedoms until Easter 2021.

The basic premise is that this new #Covid19 mutation spreads faster than others. The scientific evidence on this claim is at best ambiguous and at worse contradicts this claim.

It is true that the UK has seen a rise in known Covid19 cases but of greater import is that these new cases have not lead to an increase in the mortality rate for this time of the year which remains more or less within the rolling 5 year average.

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Frankly the government claims about an impending apocalypse aren’t simply wrong, they are bordering on the dishonest. The government’s claim that the new mutation (of a great many mutations) spreads faster is disproved by the above graph. The mutated strain was first spotted in September of 2020. If it was capable of spreading as claimed by the government then by late October, early November the death rate should have been approaching April’s levels. It isn’t. The conclusion is two fold either Covid19 is not spreading as claimed by the government and the extra cases noted are due to the additional testing that’s taking place or the virus is spreading as claimed but is not producing any significant numbers of additional deaths.

Either way this is not a public health emergency and there is currently no empirical evidence that demands the excessive lock-downs demanded by government.

Should we be frightened of new strains of Covid19? According to the #BMJ, the answer is probably not. Covid19 is similar to other viruses in that it mutates naturally, over time these mutations tend to become less virulent. In very simple terms a virus is like any other living thing, it wants to live. It it kills its host it dies with the host, by becoming less dangerous to health the virus promotes its own long term survival. For an update of what significant mutations have already taken place here’s an interesting little article by the UK consortium tasked with tracking the mutations.

One side effect of the UK government’s hysteria is that by promoting the idea that this new mutation is more contagious and by implication more dangerous and that this was an emergency situation #EU member states have used this as an excuse to stop trade and travel from the UK. This has nothing to do with the mutated virus, the EU is already infected but is all to do with attempting to influence the current #Brexit trade negotiations. It’s noteworthy that Boris and his band of hapless morons failed to anticipate this.

Once again the EU has shown itself to be untrustworthy and manipulative and yet some people still worship at the feet of that particular false idol.